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Partying Like It's 1983

Posted Nov 09, 2009 11:00am EST by Henry Blodget in Investing, Recession, Banking

The longer a bull market lasts, the more bullish people get.  And now that we're seven months and 60% off the March low, people are getting really bullish.

Specifically, people are starting to draw comparisons to 1983, the second-year of an amazing 18-year bull market that took the DOW up 10-fold.

Could they possibly be right?

Yes, anything's possible.  And with the market already up 60%, we're off to a good start.

But there are three big differences between now and 1983 that should check some of this optimism:

  • First, stocks are already getting expensive.  This year's earnings were depressed by huge writeoffs, so a P/E ratio based only on this year doesn't tell you much.  But even when you "smooth" the P/E by averaging 10 years worth of earnings, the market looks expensive.  It's about 15%-20% above its long-term average.
  • Second, consumers are still dragging around a mountain of debt.  In the early 1980s, consumer debt was only 62% of GDP.  Now it's 122%.  In future years, consumers are likely to reduce their debts, not add to them, and this will likely crimp buying power.
  • Third, in 1983, interest rates were at near record highs (8.5%) and on their way down.  Now, they have only one way to go: up.  All else being equal, a steady rise in interest rates will likely produce lower P/Es.
On the positive side, governments around the world are screaming from the rooftops that they're going to keep giving money away for free.  As long as they're doing that, the value of some assets will likely continue to increase.  And right now, one of those assets is stocks.

 

154 Comments

Rick
Rick - Monday November 09, 2009 11:35AM EST

I THINK I FINALLY GET IT! I have been scratching my head trying to understand … Good news, market goes up … no news, the market goes up …. bad news, the market goes up … how can this be possible. Logic says that smart people would be getting out when stocks are as overvalued as they are today. Then I talk with people and find out that the smart people are out of the market. The normal people are just letting their 401K go with the flow (and still contributing), and the dumb people do not have any money to be in the market. BUT the part I had not been getting is that the investors, banks, speculators, etc … all have free money with no risk (thanks to Obama). This market is not a market of earnings and performance; it is a market of government induced greed from free money! Each of them are feeding the market the billions of free government money … the value of stock has nothing to do with it. I guess the question becomes … when do they run out of free money … when will Uncle Sam shut off the printing presses … OR Is this the future, the stock market always rising because the government will not let it fall (too big to fail) … A subsidized market that will insure peoples 401ks are there for their retirement and replaces the Social security system (think justification) … A giant, never ending, government run, ponzy scheme … NOW I am thinking …. If I was smart, I’d be back in the market. The true indicator of when it is time to get out is … When will the government free money stop flowing.

JoeB
JoeB - Monday November 09, 2009 11:45AM EST

Our government should be in the Guiness Book of World Records. They hold the title for having the biggest bubble blowing wand ever created. The soapy pool they dip it in is the revenue fund.

- Monday November 09, 2009 11:46AM EST

wow, so it's a good thing i had to burn through my savings over the past year.

petapansies
petapansies - Monday November 09, 2009 11:54AM EST

I'm riding it but also taking major profits. Something has to give but you are a fool to stay completely out for the next year or so. This is going higher and much higher than people want to believe. Cash is worthless....Right now learn the game and play along with Goldman Sachs.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Monday November 09, 2009 11:55AM EST

It is too late to be bullish. Those who want to buy low and sell higher to the greater fool may soon find out that they are themselves the greater fool who bought at the top. Get out while the music is playing. Soon the financial mania will be over: http://www.tradingstocks.net/html/financial_mania_continues.html

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Monday November 09, 2009 11:58AM EST

Folks, PE ratio's are waaay above the roof if we take the bank losses into account. The accounting tricks are keeping the PE ratios at bay. If we use the old accounting rules, the PE ratio is all time high, worse than the bubble of Nasdaq days. Look at the GAAP earnings and PE ratio's at the bottom of this page: http://www.tradingstocks.net/html/latest_opinion.html

DeCriminalize Now
DeCriminalize Now - Monday November 09, 2009 12:01PM EST

Gold, Real estate, stocks or Bonds? So many choices! If only I had the freedom to choose pot instead of Booze!

BALTIC_DRY
BALTIC_DRY - Monday November 09, 2009 12:02PM EST

not only is there nothing to sustain this market, none of the problems that got us here have even been addressed. too much dependence on credit for everything, no real jobs, nothing to sustain any of it. only reason companies are "up" is because they've fired lots of people, have sold equipment/divisions/brands to generate cash, and cut & outsourced everything possible to trim operating costs. how many more quarters can they keep doing that while not really "selling" anything, and people continue to lose their jobs? not much longer.

DeCriminalize Now
DeCriminalize Now - Monday November 09, 2009 12:06PM EST

Another great day for FAS. How many more? Nobody knows! Just one bit of bad news could send it all tumbling down.

Polski
Polski - Monday November 09, 2009 12:07PM EST

My stock went up $3K, Down $3K, plus, a couple of other ups & downs, now up 1%, You figure the averages? Are we looking at how much money went through the system to average out to "0", or what? Where is the Goal of sustained growth, or is my money like playing Monopoly. Some win some lose, so start all over again, and re-shuffle the money? Read: "Rick"?

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Monday November 09, 2009 12:07PM EST

Back to GS for a moment. Let them collect their bonuses at yr end. But also have the Government change the tax law on them to recapture those bonuses just in time to scr..w them.

Tom
Tom - Monday November 09, 2009 12:08PM EST

Has anyone tried this? www.dnafxtrading.com

Rey
Rey - Monday November 09, 2009 12:11PM EST

Now that they are getting more people into the market and the stocks keep rising Get ready for reality to set in and the big fish unload for the killing see the party turn into suicide when all the little guys lose their A$$

Our
Our - Monday November 09, 2009 12:16PM EST

Bust all the "FOUNDATONS of Buffets-Soros-Bill Gates Any and All Tax-Free Foundations to pay 50% and used to return thru income tax the money to the MIDDLE CLASS REBEL PEACEFULLY-for Fairness Stop giving $$$ to Billionaires Give to the poor from $0-dollars to $80,000 and build a Middle class Vote all politicans out start NEW Parties Vote EVERYONE OUT CITY-County-State-Federal Vote only for NEW Average Citizens Bring Back the Middle Class To: Assemblymember.Jeffries@assembly.ca.gov Sent: Sunday, November 01, 2009 3:04 PM Subject: Re: [Norton AntiSpam] The Jeffries Journal (PLEASE SHARE WITH OTHERS) City- State-Federal Goverments are Robbing the Citizens My recommendation is to STOP ALL Retirements over $80,000 Salaries over $120,000 and reduce ALL Salaries or Retirements currently PAID over $100,000 by 20% and use the money to rehire everyone Laid-Off. Any Salaries / Retirements over $150,000 reduce by 30% and put balance into rehiring everyone Laid-Off. Reduce All salaries and retirements over $200-400K by 40% and $400,00-million by 50% and cap All future retirements at $80,000 and Sales at $120,000: Using surplus to payoff California's Debt. Or I predict this STATE will along with the USA =See Default *&* Collapse. Very Similar to what is happening top the "CITIES like Vallejo"

The Truth
The Truth - Monday November 09, 2009 12:19PM EST

Dow 11,000 will be here sooner than you think. Fundamentals mean nothing in a frothy momentum-driven technical market. And this one's a frothy one!

BobDiaz
BobDiaz - Monday November 09, 2009 12:21PM EST

Nice to see the newest Bulls taking part in the "Cash From Suckers" program. I guess they are not looking at the current value of the stocks and just following the mindless buy, buy, buy thinking. Once the market self-corrects, they'll be loosing it on the sell, sell, sell, thinking. There's no limit to the number of suckers out there.

The Truth
The Truth - Monday November 09, 2009 12:23PM EST

Now, now Rey, don't go telling the end of the story before everyone finishes reading the book. Of course the market will come crumbling down as the greed-driven buying frenzy gets replaced with the fear-driven book-the-profits selling frenzy. But that will not be for a little while. The Dow will reach 11,000 before that happens. And you can take that prediction to the bank.

David
David - Monday November 09, 2009 12:24PM EST

Yeah, pity that the government doesn't take any interest in the real economy. Only the 'funny money' paper asset financial markets get bailed out. And the taxpayer gets the bill.

Elmer
Elmer - Monday November 09, 2009 12:24PM EST

We have a lot of head winds in our future, Raising rates, taxes to pay for all these mistakes we have made since August of 2008. Let’s hope we stop this government spend and soon. If not 8 to 10% unemployment will become the norm.

richard
richard - Monday November 09, 2009 12:27PM EST

The stock market going up, and in a related article, gold soaring. PE ratios the highest in recorded history. Think I will sit this one out.

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